inundated with \u201cRussian and Chinese ships<\/a>,\u201d although there is no evidence to support his claim.<\/p>\n\u201cChina is likely to read this as confirmation that the US is explicitly comfortable with hemispheric spheres of influence,\u201d said Simona Grano, head of research on China-Taiwan relations at the University of Zurich\u2019s Institute for Asian and Oriental Studies.<\/p>\n
China immediately condemned Maduro\u2019s abduction by US special forces as a \u201cclear violation of international law\u201d and urged Washington to \u201cstop toppling the government of Venezuela\u201d.<\/p>\n
But the return of these spheres \u201ccuts both ways for Beijing,\u201d said Grano.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the one hand, it underscores the vulnerability of China\u2019s investments and partnerships in Latin America; on the other, it may reinforce Chinese perceptions that Washington would find it harder to credibly oppose similar logic in East Asia, even if the Taiwan case is far more sensitive and escalatory,\u201d she told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
China has pledged to annex Taiwan by peace or by force if necessary and regards Taipei\u2019s Democratic Progressive Party, which heads the democratically elected government, as separatists.<\/p>\n
Diplomatically isolated Taiwan is only recognised by 11 countries and the Holy See, but it has unofficial backing from the US, which has pledged to help Taipei defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the 1982 Six Assurances.<\/p>\n
While Beijing regards Taiwan as an \u201cinternal\u201d matter, Trump\u2019s policy regarding \u201cspheres of influence\u201d could offer it another way to discuss Taiwan on the world stage, said Lev Nachman, a political scientist and an assistant professor at National Taiwan University.<\/p>\n
\u201cI do think that America has created more global precedent for large powers to take action against other states beyond their jurisdiction,\u201d Nachman told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Though China is unlikely to act militarily against Taiwan in the near future, \u201cit will now have an easier time justifying military action if and when the day comes,\u201d Nachman said.<\/p>\n
Taiwan is not the only place Beijing may consider to fall under its \u201csphere of influence\u201d. China claims much of the South China Sea and has ongoing territorial disputes there with Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taipei, while it also claims the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.<\/p>\n
Disputes between China and India on its eastern border have ended in deadly clashes, including a 1962 border war and more recent skirmishes since 2020.<\/p>\n
On Chinese social media platforms such as WeChat, Douyin and Weibo, Venezuela has been a major talking point over the past week, with some netizens drawing parallels to Taiwan.<\/p>\n
\u201cSince the US can illegally invade Venezuela and arrest its president, the [Chinese military] can legitimately and legally exercise its national sovereignty over unification,\u201d one Weibo user wrote in a post that received more than 1,000 comments.<\/p>\n
The White House has characterised Maduro\u2019s abduction as a law enforcement operation, and its air strikes on the waters around Venezuela as a defensive move to stem the flow of drugs into the US. None of Venezuela\u2019s neighbours has interceded, although they have condemned Trump\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n
While critics have rejected the Trump administration\u2019s framing of the kidnapping as a law and order move, that approach, too, appears to have prompted suggestions from some on Chinese social media on how Beijing could try to take Taiwan.<\/p>\n
\u201cFirst, issue arrest warrants for pro-independence elements, then send people to search for them,\u201d a Weibo user said.<\/p>\n
\u201cDuring this process, there will inevitably be people who obstruct us, so we will use the military to overcome the obstruction,\u201d another Weibo user said. \u201cThis term is good: law enforcement action, which is more applicable to our internal province of Taiwan.\u201d<\/p>\n
Experts agreed that the Maduro abduction in Venezuela would not immediately change China\u2019s plans for Taiwan, which Grano described as \u201ccategorically different from Latin America in terms of escalation and alliance dynamics\u201d.<\/p>\n
A conflict with Taiwan could quickly draw in the US and potentially its treaty ally Japan, whose Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said any attack or blockade of Taiwan would be a \u201csurvival-threatening situation for Japan,\u201d potentially justifying the use of force. It could also dramatically affect global shipping routes through the strategically important Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n
Beijing has also not ruled out peaceful means of taking control of the democracy of 23 million people.<\/p>\n
At the same time, \u201cmany [Chinese] netizens expressed shock at the United States\u2019 unilateral handling of Maduro, with some commenting that the incident underscored a belief that only a strong country can avoid being bullied,\u201d Jiang Jiang, chief editor of the China-focused newsletter Ginger River Review and a researcher at the Xinhua Institute think tank, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Maduro\u2019s arrest has shown Beijing that Trump is ready and willing to act on perceived threats, said William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Crisis Group.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s strike on Maduro was preceded by months of threats against the Venezuelan leader over his alleged ties to drug cartels, accompanied by US air strikes on alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. The Trump administration has not released any evidence showing that the more than 100 people killed in these boat strikes were drug traffickers, or that the vessels were headed to the US.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a warning towards Beijing that the US will be willing to resort to the military option when trying to accomplish the goal of removing certain political forces in Latin America,\u201d Yang told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Qinduo Xu, a Chinese political analyst who hosts a current affairs programme on the state-run CGTN television channel, agreed.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a reminder for China that the US is a different power \u2013 naked raw power \u2013 and they just throw out any kind of rules, international rules, or as long as they see the rules as in their way,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Maduro\u2019s ousting will likely reinforce Beijing\u2019s preference for a model of engagement in Latin America where it does not assume any responsibility for the survival of its partnering governments and leaders, according to experts like Grano.<\/p>\n
For the past 20 years, Venezuela has been one of Beijing\u2019s closest partners in the region. China was the top destination for Venezuelan oil after the US imposed sanctions in 2019, and China has invested $4.8bn in Venezuela over that period, according to the Rhodium Group.<\/p>\n
Beijing has also loaned the country tens of millions of dollars, of which JP Morgan estimates Venezuela still owes between $13bn and $15bn, according to a recent Reuters report.<\/p>\n
The two sides signed an \u201call-weather strategic partnership\u201d in 2023 \u2013 a diplomatic designation only granted by Beijing to five other countries. The partnership, however, does not include security guarantees, which means China will suffer little reputational damage in the long term as a trusted diplomatic partner for failing to come to Venezuela\u2019s defence militarily, experts said.<\/p>\n
Gabriel Wildau, the managing director of risk analysis company Teneo, told Al Jazeera he expected Chinese officials to remain pragmatic even as the US tries to assert its political sway over its \u201csphere of influence\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cUltimately \u2026 Beijing is likely to keep the bigger picture in mind. China\u2019s leadership does not view relations with Venezuela as a core interest, and maintaining the current US-China detente is likely a higher priority,\u201d he said. Trump is due to visit China in April amid negotiations aimed at resolving an ongoing trade war between the two superpowers that last year threatened to disrupt global commerce with spiralling tit-for-tat tariffs.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump\u2019s raid on Venezuela suggests that Chinese investments in Latin America now face greater political risks from US meddling in the region,\u201d Gildau said. \u201cStill, Beijing will likely respond by seeking ways to mitigate those risks rather than turning away from the region.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
China finds risks, opportunities as Trump pushes for \u2018spheres of influence\u2019 China will need to reassess its investment in Venezuela and its understanding of US foreign policy under Trump. Hours before United States special forces\u00a0abducted\u00a0Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday, Maduro met with China\u2019s special envoy to the Latin American country to reaffirm their nations\u2019 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=413"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413\/revisions\/415"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsliked.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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